02.06.2015. Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine №5(92) – Economy reached the bottom, IER


A new issue of the Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine №5(92) by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting includes GDP estimates and its components, fiscal indicators, balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate for current and next years.

Recent Ukrstat data indicate that Ukrainian economy likely reached the bottom and is likely to stabilize in the second half of the year. The IER expects that real GDP will drop by near 9% in 2015 due to sharp contraction of domestic demand. The escalation of military conflict and return to populistic policies are seen as the main risks of the forecast. Still, if our assumptions hold real GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2016.

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