25.11.2015. “How Russian Food Embargo Will Impact Ukraine”, – expert opinion, IER

Oleksa Stepanyuk, a research fellow of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), has analyzed possible outcomes of the Russian food embargo for Ukraine.

From 1st January 2016, Russian Federation introduces new sanctions against Ukraine and Free Trade Area might partially be restricted, too. According to the Ukrainian government estimations, it might bring around 600 mln USD loss for the Ukrainian economy.

Oleksa Stepanyuk considers this number overly pessimistic, so he re-calculates it taking into account: 

1)  list of “products under sanction” whose export would be banned as of 1.01.2016;

2)  price of these products which were exported to Russia during January-September 2015;

3)  prognosis for export of these products in October-December 2015.

Following the expert, total loss because of the new sanctions and partial cancellation of Free Trade Area will be 360 mld USD. It is 0,1% of Ukrainian GDP in 2014 and 2,8% of agricultural export in 2014. It is rather minor loss because export to Russia has decreased extremely in 2014-15 because of the embargo on meat, dairy and plant products.

Read more (in Ukrainian)