Belarus Watch Briefing. Issue #16

The European Values Center for Security Policy (Prague) and Internews Ukraine (Kyiv) prepared the sixteenth issue of the monitoring of Russian activities and influence in Belarus.

Recent policy developments

Lukashenka is ready to open the “second front” against Ukraine.

On December 1, Alyaksandar Lukashenka once again confirmed his plan to support Russia if Belarus faces “Ukrainian aggression.” Then, on December 2, he announced the joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises, which would take place close to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. This exercise will have two stages — the first stage will take place “in winter months.”

These statements demonstrate that Lukashenka is fully prepared to open the “second front” against Ukraine if the Kremlin decides to initiate large-scale aggression against this country. In any situation, the Ukrainian Army will have to pay more careful attention to protecting the 1084-km long Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

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