It has been a year since on 12 February 2015, the presidents of Ukraine and Russia Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin together with President of France Francois Hollande and Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel in the so-called Normandy format, in the capital of Belarus, agreed on a set of measures for the conflict resolution and ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine. The agreements called Minsk-2 provided, in particular, for ceasefire on the contact line in Donbas, the withdrawal of large-calibre weapons, and the exchange of prisoners.

Aliona Hetmanchuk, Director of the Institute of the World Policy, published an analitical article related to the topic of the Referendum in the Netherlands. The expert notes: “It is hardly any time left before the referendum and the hotteest discussions will occur in the last 3 weeks. As of now, the situation is not optimisticaml for Ukraine because 60% are against the Association Agreement and  40% for. 33% still have not decided. It is also possible to notice some positive dynamics for Ukraine and the opponents of the Agreement are less confident of their positions.

Olexiy Haran and Petro Burkovskyj, the leading experts of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, provide a scrupulous analysis of the contemporary US policy on Ukraine in their fresh article “Will U.S.-Ukraine relations survive the Obama years?”.

The experts state that the Obama administration, as well as its Republican predecessors, ignored early warnings of an emerging crisis in Ukrainian-Russian relations. Instead of using institutional ties and keeping their distance, American diplomats informally engaged in Ukrainian politics. As a result, before the end of Obama’s first term, Russia had the upper hand in Ukraine. The situation is getting worse, too, because America is now stuck in the role of mediating Ukraine’s squabbling political factions.

The Institute of World Policy has presented a research titled “Conflict Settlement Practices around the World. Lessons for Ukraine”.

IWP has examined the global experience of local conflicts in order to determine the best practices and develop recommendations for Ukraine regarding security and political aspects of conflict settlement in Eastern regions. In particular, the IWP’s experts have analyzed 10 cases of conflict settlement around the world.

This research contains the best practices for implementation of the most contentious stages of conflict settlement: deployment of peacekeeping missions, disarmament and demobilization, amnesty, and elections in the post-conflict territories.

In the scientific article “Ukrainian-Russian Conflict and Its Implications for Northeast Asia”, that appeared in the International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, O. Haran poses the following question: In what way violation of international law, guaranties and system of balances will influence both internal  situation in the region and relations between great powers regarding Northeast Asia in general and Korean problem, in particular.

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25.01.2016. Newsletter “Information of the WTO members” No.77, IER

Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting introduced the issue of the newsletter “Information of the WTO members” No.77 (full version is only available in Ukrainian), which is a regular information product of the project “Trade policy and practice in Ukraine”. This project was prepared in cooperation with the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine and the National Board of Trade of Sweden.

In issue of the newsletter:

– Hungary: changes to the legislation on tobacco products;

– EU: revision of the list of substances of very high health concern;

A policy brief written by Ivan Medynskyi research fellow at the Institute of World Policy.

This policy brief focuses on the consequences of how a U.S. decision to bolster Ukraine’s defensive capabilities would affect the conflict dynamics in Donbas. The key argument is that the provision of the U.S. lethal weapons would be unlikely to tip the scales of conflict in favor of Kyiv. However, it would send a clear message to the Ukrainian people and the Russian leadership that the United States is ready to supplement diplomatic efforts with more robust security assistance.

Kateryna Zarembo, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Policy, and Bert Maan, a retired judge of the Court of Appeal of Amsterdam, gave their analysis of the consequences of the referendum in the Netherlands in an article for Ukrainian Pravda.

According to the authors, the referendum will have a direct impact on the fate of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine.

Read more (in Ukrainian)

 

Bulletin provides an overview of political events of the week and the analytical report “Reclamation of the Donbas and a mechanism for the de-occupation of Crimea: realistic plans or political slogans?” prepared by A. Suharina. Expert raises the following issues: How realistic is the liberation of the Donbas within a year? What are the prospects of resolving the problems in Crimea and introducing a mechanism of de-occupation?

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The annual report summarizes the activities of the institute and outlines future plans for 2016. During 2015 IWP promptly responded to the most pressing issues related to European integration and security challenges.

In 2015, the IWP has prepared 19 policy papers (almost twice more than last year) and has started to implement 12 projects aimed to achieve the mission of the IWP.

Read more (in Ukrainian)