Where is the global economy heading in 2019?


One of the main difficulties in economics is to identify turning points in the business cycle. The notion of Credit Impulse tries to solve this issue by focusing on the evolution of the flow of credit. CASE publishes a quarterly update on Credit Impulse for the main global economies and Poland.

Credit Impulse is a relatively new concept based on basic Keynesian economics that emerged in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and is a key driver of economic growth. Traditionally, economists tend to focus purely on the stock of credit and misses the developments in the flow of credit that are also important to assess the evolution of the global economy. Studies point out that credit impulse is a better credit indicator to understand the business cycle, that is closely related to private demand and that works with a lag of nine to twelve months. In a simple model of economy, the driving forces behind economic growth are consumption and investment.

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